Belgium’s energy transition is entering a critical phase. In recent years, several nuclear reactors (Doel 1, Doel 2, and Tihange 1) have been shut down as part of the nuclear phase-out policy. While Doel 4 and Tihange 3 are planned for a limited lifetime extension, the Belgian power system is increasingly dependent on gas-fired generation to ensure security of supply.

At the European level, natural gas remains a key energy source, but its supply structure has shifted. Russian pipeline gas has largely been replaced by LNG imports, with the United States as the largest supplier. Although this shift improves supply security, LNG is generally more expensive and links European energy prices to global fuel markets. As a result, gas and electricity prices are likely to remain higher than historical levels and more exposed to international market volatility.

Even though gas accounts for a relatively small share of total electricity generation, it often sets the marginal price, particularly during morning and evening peaks, which drives costs for industry. Dynamic electricity pricing illustrates this effect clearly: when renewable output is high and demand is low, prices can drop sharply (sometimes even turning negative). When demand rises and renewable generation falls, gas-fired plants are called upon to cover the shortfall, setting the highest daily prices.

Meanwhile, Europe’s energy-intensive sectors are under pressure, competing with regions where electricity is cheaper and more predictable. Investment decisions are being postponed or redirected, raising the risk of gradual de-industrialisation. Energy has once again become a strategic factor for economic competitiveness.

At the same time, the long-term direction is clear, with solar and offshore wind growing rapidly and pushing renewable production to record levels. Wind and solar are local, scalable, and potentially the lowest-cost sources of electricity. Yet gas-fired plants are still needed to cover periods when renewable output is insufficient.

The missing link is flexibility. Without energy storage and smart energy management, renewable electricity remains tied to weather patterns. With sufficient flexibility, low-cost renewable electricity can be shifted to peak hours, reducing reliance on gas, stabilising prices, and improving system resilience.

Affordable electrification therefore requires a flexible and reliable system that integrates renewable generation, energy storage, and intelligent asset management. Developing these capabilities is essential to maintaining secure and cost-efficient electricity supply.