For much of the past year, battery market dynamics encouraged caution. Prices continued to soften, project decisions were delayed, and many stakeholders chose to wait for further reductions.

Today, market signals suggest that this phase is coming to an end. There are now three clear indicators that the market is reaching a turning point.

Battery prices have reached a practical floor

Over recent months, battery pricing has stabilised after an extended period of decline. This stabilisation suggests that the market has found a practical price floor.

Rather than signalling a rebound driven by sudden demand, this reflects a more balanced market environment where pricing has become predictable enough to support confident planning. This shift reduces uncertainty and allows decisions to be made with greater clarity.

Manufacturing cost pressure is returning

At the same time, upstream cost dynamics are changing. Key raw materials, including lithium, have reversed their downward trend and are showing renewed upward momentum.

This return of manufacturing pressure is an important signal. It indicates that the extremely low prices seen previously are no longer aligned with underlying cost structures. As a result, future pricing dynamics are more likely to reflect sustainable production economics rather than short-term discounting..

Structural export cost changes are ahead

Beyond short-term market movements, structural changes are approaching. Announced adjustments to China’s battery export VAT framework — including phased reductions (April 2026) and eventual removal (2027) — will increase export costs over time.

These changes will introduce additional volatility into global supply chains and reinforce the shift away from exceptional discounting. For European markets, this further supports a more stable and rational pricing environment.